OpenAI is recalibrating one of the most closely watched spending plans in the tech world—an adjustment that is already echoing across the US markets and the broader global market.
Multiple reports indicate the company now expects to spend about $600 billion on compute infrastructure by 2030, a sharp but strategic shift from CEO Sam Altman’s earlier reference to $1.4 trillion in long-term commitments for data centers and AI supercomputing capacity. The revised roadmap reflects a more disciplined approach, aligning future investments with revenue growth and investor expectations.
A Strategic Reset, Not a Retreat
Rather than signaling a slowdown, the new target highlights a transition toward financially sustainable expansion.
Powering advanced AI systems—such as the models behind ChatGPT—requires enormous computing capacity. Even at $600 billion, OpenAI’s projected cumulative spend over the next several years would surpass the combined capital expenditure of many major technology firms. The scale points to gigawatts of AI compute, putting the company in a league that rivals and, in some areas, exceeds current hyperscaler investments.
This recalibration comes as investors increasingly scrutinize how quickly AI infrastructure spending can translate into real earnings—a key theme influencing both the US markets and the global market outlook for technology.
Revenue Momentum Supports the Vision
OpenAI’s financial performance provides the foundation for this long-term bet.
- 2025 revenue: $13 billion (above the $10 billion forecast)
- Expenses: $8 billion (below the $9 billion target)
- Annualized revenue run rate by late 2025: over $20 billion
- Year-on-year growth: 233%
However, the cost of running AI models—known as inference—rose sharply, cutting adjusted gross margins from 40% in 2024 to 33% in 2025. This margin pressure underscores why the company is tying infrastructure expansion more closely to future income.
Looking ahead, OpenAI projects more than $280 billion in cumulative revenue by 2030, split almost evenly between consumer and enterprise businesses—an outlook that reinforces confidence across the global market for AI services.
Mega Partnerships Power the Compute Race
To secure the hardware and cloud capacity needed for its AI ambitions, OpenAI has signed major agreements with leading chipmakers and cloud providers, including Nvidia and Oracle.
Earlier infrastructure estimates had placed total commitments at around $1.15 trillion through 2035, highlighting just how massive the AI build-out could become. Even with the revised figure, the company remains at the center of a spending wave that is reshaping supply chains, semiconductor demand, and capital flows in the US markets.
IPO Plans and the Trillion-Dollar Question
The updated projections arrive as OpenAI lays the groundwork for a potential IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion.
Key developments include:
- A mega funding round exceeding $100 billion
- Nvidia considering an investment of up to $30 billion
- A potential pre-money valuation of $730 billion
- Strategic investors expected to contribute around 90% of the capital
This level of backing signals strong institutional confidence, even as the company adopts a more measured spending path.
What It Means for US Markets and the Global Market
OpenAI’s revised compute strategy is more than a corporate budgeting decision—it is a bellwether for the AI economy.
- For the US markets, it reinforces the country’s leadership in next-generation infrastructure and high-performance computing.
- For the global market, it sets the pace for AI investment cycles, semiconductor demand, cloud expansion, and enterprise adoption.
In short, OpenAI is shifting from a narrative of unlimited spending to one of scalable, revenue-driven growth—a move that could define how the AI race is financed over the rest of the decade.
